Remark. Elicitation, starting probability, and finite evidence [ftip-0006]

Reinforcement learning can move probability toward successful traces that a base model already emits; this possibility is tested empirically in [liu2025understanding, secs. 2.3 and 3.3--3.4]. A finite experiment cannot establish that an unrestricted generative model assigns exactly zero probability to a behaviour. The positive threshold \(\varepsilon \) therefore belongs to the declared experiment rather than to an ontological claim about what the model ``contains.''

An elicitation witness depends on the sampling budget, decoding rule, and reward. Bounding the attainable increase in \(p_1(B)\) requires assumptions about the starting probability \(p_0(B)\) and the information supplied by post-training.