Definition. Measured contrasts and conditional predictions [ftip-00LE]
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A measured paired contrast evaluates the same declared quantity for two observed model instances under a specified task, protocol and cost accounting. The common-recipe scores in Example [ftip-00LC] are one example. A confirmatory comparison fixes its matching and selection rules before examining the scores.

A conditional paired prediction instead uses an explicit model to supply one or more cost or response quantities, then derives the comparison under those assumptions. The discovery probabilities in Example [ftip-00L3] are an example. Such a prediction can be motivated by existing observations and guide a later experiment; its unmeasured inputs remain assumptions, and agreement with new matched measurements tests the model.

Context

Paired measurements for model comparison [ftip-00L4]

A paired measurement specifies both model instances and their task, intervention, evaluation, and cost coordinates. These conditions determine the meaning of each point in the measured frontier.

Definition. Comparison pair identity [ftip-00L5]

A paired comparison identifies the two systems, exact checkpoint or training commit, architecture variant, parameter counts, tokenizer, and context limit. A label such as ``Transformer'' is insufficient when attention, cache, or layer patterns differ.

Definition. Common task and evaluation conditions [ftip-00L6]

Both systems use the same task family, prompt and data law, scoring rule, sampling seeds, stopping rule, and evaluator version. Any exception is a separate comparison arm, not an unrecorded architecture effect.

Definition. Training and post-training coordinates [ftip-00L7]

Record data volume, token order policy, optimizer and schedule, supervised tuning, feedback or reinforcement procedure, update count, and selection rule. The common-recipe arm fixes these coordinates; the equal-tuning arm allows predeclared alternatives with equal search resources.

Definition. Inference and systems coordinates [ftip-00L8]

Record hardware, software and kernel versions, precision, batch, cache policy, sequence lengths, warm-up procedure, concurrency, and decoding settings. A kernel or cache change that alters numerical computation is marked as an intervention rather than hidden as an implementation detail.

Definition. Per-system cost vector [ftip-00L9]

For each system, the cost vector \(\mathbf c\) contains training FLOPs, inference FLOPs, wall time, memory, energy when available, and context length. The primary scalar \(C\) and its weights are declared beside the vector; omitted coordinates are marked unknown.

Definition. Repeated measurement rule [ftip-00LA]

For each fixed workload and system, record warm-up runs, repetition count, random seeds, and the aggregation rule. Report mean and dispersion for time, memory, and score; a single fastest run cannot define a cost frontier.

Definition. Paired uncertainty estimates [ftip-00LB]

When the same evaluation items are used, report paired score differences and an uncertainty procedure fixed before inspecting the result. Confidence intervals quantify sampling variation; they do not repair unmatched training, systems, or task coordinates.

Example. Published Kimi Linear comparison [ftip-00LC]

Table 4 of the Kimi Linear report compares the experimental models pretrained on 1.4 trillion tokens in Example [ftip-00KV], after the same supervised fine-tuning (SFT) recipe. Both have 48 billion total and 3 billion active parameters. Three selected benchmark scores are [kimi2025linear, Sections 4 and 5.4 and Table 4]:

Arm	MMLU-Pro	LiveBench	EvalPlus
Kimi Linear	67.4	45.2	61.0
Full MLA	65.7	45.7	62.6

The entries use the paper's score units, with larger values better on each selected benchmark; LiveBench is reported as Pass@1. Kimi Linear is higher on MMLU-Pro and lower on LiveBench and EvalPlus in these observations. These are reported point estimates on different tasks, not a single capability score; the table supplies no uncertainty estimate.

The common recipe uses the K2 pretraining corpus, MuonClip and a shared training schedule. SFT proceeds from broad instruction data to targeted reasoning tasks; evaluation uses temperature 1.0 and an internal framework derived from LM-Harness [kimi2025linear, Section 5.4]. Thus the scores provide a concrete example of how the trained hybrid and full-MLA designs respond to the same recipe. The cost mechanism and its possible post-training consequences are developed in Example [ftip-00KZ].

Remark. Measured and assumed costs [ftip-00LD]

A useful cost model can combine measurements with assumptions justified by the architecture and its implementation. In Example [ftip-00L3], the generation share \(f\) and speed factor \(s_{\rm gen}\) determine a predicted attempt-throughput factor. Their assumed values can be varied without pretending they were measured in the original experiment.

For fixed \(f\in [0,1]\), write \(S(s)=1/(1-f+f/s)\) for \(s>0\). This function is nondecreasing. An interval \(s_{\rm gen}\in [s_-,s_+]\), with \(0<s_-\leq s_+\), therefore gives the conditional range \(S\in [S(s_-),S(s_+)]\). This is sensitivity to a chosen assumption range; it is a statistical confidence interval only if a sampling argument supplies that interpretation.

Definition. Measured contrasts and conditional predictions [ftip-00LE]
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Example. How generation share changes the predicted gain [ftip-00LF]

Keep the illustrative generation factor \(s_{\rm gen}=2.2\) from Example [ftip-00L3] and vary the baseline generation share \(f\). Its cost model gives the following total attempt-throughput factors:

Generation share	Predicted throughput factor
20 percent	1.122
50 percent	1.375
80 percent	1.774
100 percent	2.200

These calculated values show why the same decoding improvement can matter much more for generation-heavy search than for a verifier- or optimizer-dominated workload. They suggest measuring the time spent in generation, verification and updates before selecting where to invest systems effort. A change in the bottleneck changes the useful intervention, even when the attention architecture stays fixed.

Remark. Testing the predicted architecture tradeoff [ftip-00LG]

The memory and discovery models predict the strongest benefit when long prefixes make attention state expensive, saved capacity improves useful rollout throughput, and per-attempt success remains above the break-even threshold. Short contexts, expensive verification, or strongly correlated attempts can weaken that benefit. These are distinct mechanisms to test, rather than a universal ranking of KDA and full attention.

A comparison across implementations can retain this reasoning while re-estimating state sizes, generation share and success probabilities for the new system. Report both the prediction and the matched measurements: their agreement or disagreement identifies which mechanism or assumption needs revision.

Example. Published Kimi Linear comparison [ftip-00LC]

Arm	MMLU-Pro	LiveBench	EvalPlus
Kimi Linear	67.4	45.2	61.0
Full MLA	65.7	45.7	62.6

Example. When cheaper attempts compensate for lower success [ftip-00L3]

Smaller caches can support more concurrent requests or avoid preemption and recomputation. These are actual serving mechanisms in vLLM's memory and scheduling guidance [⧉]. For post-training, the useful prediction is therefore about completed candidate attempts under a budget, including verification and optimization costs, rather than decoding speed alone.

Use the following cost model on the same hardware. One baseline attempt costs \(c>0\); generation accounts for a fraction \(f\in [0,1]\). Suppose generation becomes \(s_{\rm gen}>0\) times as fast while all other cost per attempt stays fixed. The new cost and total attempt-throughput factor are

\[ c_K=c\left (1-f+\frac {f}{s_{\rm gen}}\right ),\qquad S=\frac {c}{c_K} =\frac {1}{1-f+f/s_{\rm gen}}. \]

For a fixed budget \(B\geq 0\), this model permits \(N_M=\lfloor B/c\rfloor \) baseline attempts and \(N_K=\lfloor B/c_K\rfloor \) hybrid attempts. Assume \(N_M,N_K\geq 1\) and verified-success events independent within each set of attempts, with respective probabilities \(p_M,p_K\in [0,1]\). Then Theorem [ftip-0078] gives discovery probabilities \(1-(1-p_M)^{N_M}\) and \(1-(1-p_K)^{N_K}\). The hybrid matches or exceeds baseline discovery exactly when

\[ p_K\geq 1-(1-p_M)^{N_M/N_K}. \]

This follows by comparing the two failure probabilities and taking the nonnegative \(N_K\)-th root.

For an illustrative estimate, suppose generation consumes 80 percent of the baseline cost and use \(s_{\rm gen}=2.2\), motivated by the batch-one decode figure in Example [ftip-00KW]. Applying that decode factor to the whole generation stage is a working approximation, not a measured rollout result. Then \(S\approx 1.774\); a budget of \(B=10c\) buys 10 baseline attempts or 17 hybrid attempts. If \(p_M=0.10\) and \(p_K=0.08\), the discovery probabilities are approximately \(0.651\) and \(0.758\). The break-even hybrid probability is about \(0.0601\). Thus this model predicts that more attempts can outweigh a moderate per-attempt quality loss. The assumed probabilities are illustrative verified-success rates, not conversions of the benchmark scores in Example [ftip-00LC].

The prediction is strongest for long-context, generation-heavy work whose saved memory becomes usable rollout capacity. As verification or optimization dominates, \(f\) shrinks and \(S\) approaches one. Correlated attempts require the joint-law analysis of Convention [ftip-0077] instead of the independent product. Measure completed attempts, verified-success rates and total cost under a fixed prompt, decoding and verifier protocol to test the tradeoff. In the RLVR round of Example [ftip-004M], additional successful candidates can improve the available feedback; whether they produce useful accepted updates is a further optimizer-and-evaluation question, as Example [ftip-0085] demonstrates.