Theorem. Independent false accepts amplify with candidate count [ftip-007L]

In the repeated audit of Definition [ftip-007K], suppose the pairs \((S_i,A_i)\) are independent and identically distributed. Assume

\[ \iota =\Pr (S_i=0)>0, \qquad \eta _+=\Pr (A_i=1\mid S_i=0). \]

Then the probability that at least one accepted invalid candidate exists among the \(N\) audited candidates is

\[ \Pr (\mathcal E_N^{\rm fa})=1-(1-\iota \eta _+)^N. \]

It is strictly increasing in \(N\) when \(0<\iota \eta _+<1\), and it converges to \(1\) when \(\iota \eta _+>0\).

This finite statement follows from the displayed hypotheses.